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The sun is launching stronger and more regular storms than expected
4:22:44 2023-08-17 1381

The aurora borealis, the northern or southern lights, is the light emitted by upper atmosphere particles as they interact with energetic particles from the magnetosphere.

It is an amazing event that those who live in high latitudes can often witness.

For scientists, the aurora borealis is an infinitely complex amalgamation of ionospheric dynamics, a manifestation of Earth's intrinsic connection to the sun.

In February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink internet satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO). It was the 36th Starlink launch carried out by SpaceX, and it was expected to go off without a hitch.

On launch day, Earth was hit by a coronal mass ejection - a large explosion of plasma from the sun. And it caused a geomagnetic storm in the atmosphere between 100 and 500 kilometers high, which is the target range by Starlink.

This event injected a huge amount of electromagnetic energy directly into the Earth's upper atmosphere.

It produced beautiful auroras, but the energy also increased the density of the air. The high air density is usually not much of a problem for LEO satellites, as it is already too low for typical operating altitudes (above 400 km).

However, Starlink was initially launched at an altitude of 210 kilometers. This is much closer to Earth, with a much higher air density. Thirty-eight of the 49 satellites intended for initial launches were lost due to clouds from the thick atmosphere, which pulled them back to Earth.

At the peak of the cycle, we see more sunspots on the Sun's surface, more radiation emitted, and more solar flares.

Geomagnetic storms like the one that caused the Starlink destruction event are relatively common, especially when the sun reaches the peak of its 11-year cycle of activity of strengthening and weakening.

 

In the previous cycle, which ended in 2019 (the 24th cycle tracked since 1755), there were 927 storms rated as moderate or weak alone — an average of one storm every five days or so.

We are now four years into Solar Cycle 25, but this cycle has already proven to be amazing.

The maximum activity of the 25th cycle was predicted in 2025, but solar activity has already exceeded that. This means we are seeing more geomagnetic storms, more auroral displays (and at lower latitudes than normal), and possibly more dangerous conditions for satellites in low Earth orbit.

Foresight   2026-03-24
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